Groundwater Asia

Mapping Groundwater Resilience to Climate Change and Human Development in Asian Cities
Mapping Groundwater Resilience to Climate Change and Human Development in Asian Cities
AIT
Mapping Groundwater Resilience to Climate Change and Human Development In Bangkok And Its Vicinity, Thailand

Groundwater is an essential resource for various uses and has great economic importance in Bangkok and its vicinity, Thailand. In this study area, groundwater is under immense pressure because of rapid urbanization, overexploitation of resources and climate change. Mapping groundwater resilience to climate change and human development can aid in understanding the dynamics of groundwater systems, facilitating the development of strategies for sustainable groundwater management.
The future climate projected using the climate data of RCM’s namely ACCESS-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5- CSIRO-CCAM and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM for three future periods: near future (2010–2039), mid future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2099) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were bias-corrected using quantile mapping technique. All RCMs predicts that the temperature is continuously increasing in the study area, however, future precipitation is highly complex and uncertain and there was a significant difference among various RCMs and both RCPs scenarios. An empirical land-use projection model (Conversion of Land-use and its Effects, Dyna-CLUE) was used. Three future land-use scenarios of Low Urbanization Scenario (LU), Medium Urbanization Scenario (MU) and High Urbanization Scenario (HU) were developed in Dyna-CLUE focusing on the increase of built-up area to generate land-use maps of Bangkok until the year 2099. A hydrological model WetSpass developed is used to estimate the groundwater recharge and suggest that groundwater will decrease in future for high and medium urbanization.
GMS-MODFLOW model was set up using boundary conditions, recharge rates, pumping rates and hydraulic properties. The average groundwater level is projected to increase in pumping scenarios S1 and S2, all land-use scenarios and both RCPs scenarios. Whereas, the average groundwater level is projected to decrease in pumping scenarios S3, all land-use scenarios and both RCPs. Based on the result of GMS-MODFLOW, groundwater resiliency indicator is developed, and this indicator is used to generate the resiliency map of Bangkok and its vicinity. The area classified as “very highly resilient” is projected to increase for pumping scenarios S1 and S2 in future. Whereas, for pumping scenario S3, the area under “very high resilient class” decreases and area under “not resilient” class increases as we moved to future.

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